Ill-Posed

bluesky — Kol Tregaskes — 24 Sep 2026

Forecasters were mostly wrong about AI.

#ai-capabilities #ai-forecasting

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Forecasters were mostly wrong about AI.

On capabilities

  • Claimed Millennium Prize problem solution (September 2026 claim by OpenAI re Navier–Stokes, targeting end of 2027, awaiting verification from prize organization; forecast: 10% [experts] and 5% [SF])

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